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In a few hours, the committee will publish their top teams in college football. With this being the final week of the regular season, this will be a very impactful ranking. Our panel has thoughts. Here’s our list:
Oregon 11-0
Ohio State 10-1
Texas 10-1
Georgia 9-2
Notre Dame 10-1
Tennessee 9-2
Penn State 10-1
SMU 10-1
Miami 10-1
Indiana 10-1
Boise State 11-0
Alabama 8-3
Ole Miss 8-3
South Carolina 8-3
Arizona State 9-2
Editor’s note: Our panel believes all 15 of these teams have a realistic path to qualifying for the CFP.
Analysis:
Oregon: The Ducks can and should coast to the BIG 10 title game. It seems likely that they will have a rematch with Ohio State in Indianapolis. Can Oregon beat a good team twice and earn the top seed and a bye?
Ohio State: The Buckeyes proved a lot during their 38-15, home win over Indiana. The Buckeyes have had some tightly contested victories, notably over Penn State and Nebraska. With those games in mind, many were waiting for a dominating performance–Ohio State delivered that Saturday. Their one blemish, a devastating 32-31 loss against Oregon, can be atoned in the BIG 10 title game.
Texas: The Longhorns have a long way to go before solidifying this first round bye, and a top 4 seed. For starters, Texas will have to win in College Station against Texas A&M, a game they are modestly favored in. If they win, Texas will play Georgia in the SEC championship game, having already lost to Georgia, in Austin, 30-15.
Georgia: Despite losses against Ole Miss & Alabama, Georgia is still Georgia. The Dawgs are now the odds on favorites to win the SEC. Georgia will face the winner of the Texas vs Texas A&M contest Saturday. A win would certainly land Georgia with the number two seed.
Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish aren’t out of the barn yet–but they are close. One more win will lock Notre Dame in the CFP. The Irish will be playing in Southern California Saturday night on NBC, in what will be a win and in game for ND. USC will be playing for a winning record, currently sitting at 6-5.
Tennessee: No team benefitted from the wildness of week 13 more than Tennessee. The Vols didn’t have to sweat a 56-0 win over UTEP, and enjoyed upsets over Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss from a distance. Those losses have made Tennessee the unquestioned third best team in the SEC, and a playoff team with a win over Vanderbilt.
Penn State: It has not always been pretty for Penn State, this week it was a 26-25 win over Minnesota. However, Penn State has just one loss and an easy matchup this week with Maryland. Much like Tennessee, Penn State won’t be playing in their conference championship game, but they are firmly in the college football playoff.
SMU: The Mustangs have been solid over the crucial November stretch. With only one remaining game, Cal in Dallas on Saturday. SMU looks poised to compete for the ACC championship, a win in that game landing them a first round playoff bye.
Miami: Miami: The Hurricanes are in control of their own destiny, but will have no kit coming should they lose the ACC title game. A loss against Georgia Tech will do that. Aside from that loss, Miami has had other lapses. The Canes beat Virginia Tech on a hail mary, came from 25 behind against Cal, and won a 52-45 shootout against Louisville. Our panel does not feel this resume is strong enough should the Hurricanes not win the ACC. This week in Syracuse will be a tough game.
Indiana: Indiana: Indiana benefitted from a lot of SEC carnage last week, but did little to further their own cause. Indiana likely will be a playoff team, but needs to earn respect in the coming weeks, for anyone to believe in them.
Boise State: One of the more difficult teams to handicap, Boise State will be a playoff team if they win the Mountain West and will not be if they don’t. Their last two games have been much more on the competitive side than dominant.
Alabama: The post Saban Tide have been underwhelming. Once again, they defeated Georgia, but have lost three road games as favorites, once as much as 22.5 points. Alabama now needs a lot of help to qualify for the college football playoff.
Ole Miss: Right as the Rebels hit their stride, they came up short. QB Jaxson Dart struggled against a good Florida defense and threw two late, costly, interceptions.
South Carolina: Since losing terribly to Ole Miss at home, the Gamecocks are 5-1 with their one loss a, 27-25, heartbreaker at Alabama. South Carolina has been impressive and at times dominating. A win over Clemson could justify a late case to make the CFP.
Arizona State: The Sun Devils come to our campus in Tucson with much to play for. A win will cement them a place in the BIG 12 championship game. However, in-state rivalries can be surprising and a disappointed Wildcat team could be motivated to play spoiler.
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